![]() The most important of these is the El Niño/ La Niña phenomenon.Įl Niño refers to periods of anomalous warming in the tropical eastern Pacific (anomalous cooling periods are known as La Niña). Long-term predictions rely on aspects of Earth system variability which have long timescales (months to years) and which are, to a certain extent, predictable. ![]() El Niño/La Niña forecasts and predictability in the long range Our seasonal forecasting system uses modelling and initialisation methods which are very similar to ECMWF’s other ensemble forecasts, but the SEAS system is updated less frequently. Like the medium- and extended-range forecasts, our long-range forecasts are produced using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) which uses an Earth system model to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Long-range charts include differences (or anomalies) from a long-term (model-based) climatology and probabilities of above normal, normal or below normal conditions.įind out more about how our long-range forecasts are produced. They are produced every month with a 51-member ensemble at a horizontal resolution of around 36 km.Īnnual forecasts are produced with the same system every three months and extend 13 months into the future. Our long-range (seasonal) forecasts provide information about atmospheric and oceanic conditions up to seven months into the future. Looking one or more months into the future ![]()
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